Thursday May 1, Day 1:
And they are off……off to Fiji!!!!
Yesterday was one of those days where everything was just plain harder than it should have been….
Weather: Kathy and I had been studying the weather for many weeks now….looking for that ideal trawler like weather window….the calmest conditions possible. For a week now we had been looking at this window and getting excited by the day….it could be the ideal window we wanted. We are using Met Bob (Bob McDavitt) again as our weather router, as he did a great job last year for us on several passages. A few days before, Bob had emailed us and said things were looking good and pencil in a Wednesday departure. But, there was one model that was showing some north winds near the end of the passage up by Fiji. He would email us again on Monday with an update as it was still too early to say if this model was correct or not……hmmmm, well maybe not so ideal.
Well, over the w/e the window looked better and better and we did not see any north wind. Bob, emailed Monday and said things looked great and to plan on a Wednesday departure. No mention of the outlying model. So, we came into the Opua marina, made our plans to checkout (meaning Kathy had to file via email a gazillion predeparture forms plus get ready a gazillion prearrival forms for Fiji….geez) and to get duty free fuel….you save the 15% GST…..at NZ$1.60/liter that adds up on 3000 liters!
The weather ordeal started when the guy next to us asked where we were going….Fiji….when are you leaving….tomorrow….really, have you looked at the weather…..uh, yeah, looks great for a trawler……are you sure, do you know a tropical LO is forming and could turn into a cyclone….well, we do see a LO forming south of Fiji but it quickly moves east and creates the southerly winds which will be behind us….yes, but that is a warm tropical LO and there is a cold air HI pushing down on it and that means the LO could grow into a cyclone…..hmmm, none of the models are showing that…..yes, I know that but it is a real possibility…..hmmm, did you look at the upper winds…..what upper winds….the ones showing on the 500MB chart….uh, no….well, they are strong westerly winds so I don’t think a cyclone will form as it is being pushed hard to the east with a lot of sheer…..oh, didn’t know that…..ok, but the thought did stick in my mind so I race back into the boat and study the weather for another hour….all still looks good!!!
Next, we decide to attend a 4:00 pm ICA seminar on passage weather (ICA is a cruising association that sponsors rallies to/from the tropics; this year to Tonga, Fiji, and Vanuatu……someone had said about 200 boats but it turns out to be 20+ boats in total). We see many of our old friends from last year….like a mini-reunion…..but the party for us soon stops…..a lot of people ask where are you going…..Fiji….when are you leaving…..tomorrow….really, so were we but have decided not to go….why….some of the models are not in agreement…..WHAT, which models……not sure but you shouldn’t go……gulp!!!!
The guy from ICA starts the meeting…..sorry but forgot his name…a very nice guy with a lot of experience…..how many of you are leaving tomorrow…..about 5 of us raise our hands….maybe 30-40 boats present……well, you might want to rethink your decision….gulp…..the models do not agree and in my experience that means there is some confusing weather that can turn nasty….he then mentions some terrible storms…..ok, which models…..oh, the Predictwind model doesn’t agree with the rest…..we have never used Predictwind so really do not have an opinion if it is reliable or not….one of the cruisers mentions they have been using the model for a while now and it usually is accurate….oh, great!!!!
The meeting ends and many people say see….don’t go…..Kathy and I stay for a bit but really can’t concentrate so we make a quick escape back to the boat and for the next hour or so go through all the models…..UGRIB, METU, Passage weather, Bouyweather……still showing a great window…..we find Predictwind which we have never used…..figure out how to use the confusing model….and gulp, there are the north winds….strong over the w/e and lighter as we get closer to Fiji…..yikes…..so, now what do we do??????
MetBob is attending a funeral on Tuesday and would email his final report/forecast later Tuesday evening…..so we send an email to Bob explaining what the ICA is suggesting and we go back to the Club for dinner and to await what Bob recommends…….we go back and sort of walk through dinner as our minds are only on the weather……I talk by phone to Minnie B who is in Marsden with 4-5 other boats……maybe 30-40 nm south as the crow flies…..are you guys still leaving….oh, yes….looks like a great window….that’s what we thought until ICA…..no, never looked at Predictwind…..will do that now…..heard from MetBob…..no, not yet….ok, lets talk once we hear from Bob…..ok
Finally around 7:30 pm we hear from Bob…..we are good to go….yes, he has been following Predictwind and is convinced by looking at all the other models and weather data that the model is way out on a limb and should be discounted…..oh, what a relief……we say our goodbyes and go back to the boat for another hour of studying weather……we talk to Minnie B…..they have been studying the weather and discussing with another very experienced cruiser…..they have the same opinion….great window and a GO…..we go to bed saying we are a GO depending on what we see in the am…..we both fall right to sleep but are wide awake by 3:00am……ugh……Kathy gets up first around 5 am and I follow around 6…..she does not say anything when I get up…..she looks serious…..crap, must not be good news…..I get my coffee and go through the models…..still looks like a great window….so, with trepidation I look at the Predictwind model…..and yes, it has changed…..it now agrees with all the other models….I look up and Kathy is all smiles….high 5 and a happy dance and let’s get the heck out of dodge!!!!!
So, we wait until Customs opens and go checkout…..any other boats leaving, well no one has been in yet…..hmmmm….go over to the marina office…..any other boats leaving…..no, just you guys……great and gulp……we hear from another cruiser…..you guys still going….yes…the models now all agree….a great weather window with mainly southerly component winds…well, at the ICA Captain’s briefing this am they did say the models are in agreement…..no north wind….but some very confused seas so still not recommending to go…..great……get an email from Minnie B…..all is good and 4+ boats leaving from Marsden….ok, see you out there…..
And with that……away we went…..the sole boat out of 20-30 boats……oh please may the forecast be right!!!!!
——————————————–
Stats:
Position: 32 34S 174 56E
Traveled: 170nm today: 979nm to go; ETA to Savusavu late Tuesday afternoon 5/6
Course: 356M COG
Wind: mainly 5-12 kts; slowly backing from W to SSE; now it is 5 kts E – go figure????
Waves: calm gentle W to SW swell 2-4′; <1′ wind chop; a very sweet ride
Speed: current speed is 7.9 SOG, has varied 7.3-8.5 kts; avg is 7.9 kts; 1600 rpm
Weather: 40% cloud this am; maybe some squalls off to the west; sea temp has gotten warmer from 66.5 to 71 deg F; air temp is 66 deg F, brrrrr
Boat sightings: 0 today; all alone again!!!!
Fishing: nope, John-boy was too tired; yep, can you believe that; slept off/on most of the day
Sail: down
Fuel burn: too soon to take a reading
Hope all is well!
John
Mystic Moon
